"The earth is kept warm by the greenhouse effect. Certain gases in the atmosphere (so-called greenhouse gases) absorb energy that is radiated from the Earth's surface, and so warm the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon without which life on Earth as we know it would not be possible, as the Earth would be 30°C cooler. However, our modern lifestyles have resulted in us releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases - like carbon dioxide and methane - into the atmosphere, enhancing the greenhouse effect and so pushing up temperatures globally."
UK Climate Impacts Programme
Likely changes in the UK include:
- An increase in flooding, with a million people at risk in the Thames region (the Thames Barrier currently is raised 13 times a year compared to 2-3 when built)
- More intense heat waves – with typical summers by 2040 similar to that of 2003, when tens of thousands of people died across Europe (the 1990s was the hottest decade in central England since records began)
- Water shortages
- Spread of diseases like malaria, West Nile and Dengue fever
- UK households will pay up to 4% each year extra because of extreme weather events
Likely changes worldwide include:
- More floods and droughts (11 of the 12 hottest years on record fell between 1995 and 2006)
- Low-lying islands and regions threatened by higher sea levels
- Tens of millions of refugees flee uninhabitable areas
- 30% of the world's plant and animal species could face extinction by 2050
- Large parts of the rainforest could die because of changes in the rainfall pattern
- Water supplies for drinking and irrigation threatened
- Long-term negative impact on the global economy